Risk Assessment of Ship Navigation in the Northwest Passage: Historical and Projection

Shipping volumes in the Northwest Passage are likely to increase under climate change due distance advantage over traditional routes and special strategic location of Arctic. However, harsh environment poor channel conditions may pose a considerable risk ship navigation. To ensure safety ships, understand navigability route, plan sustainable use Passage, it is crucial provide quantitative assessment. Here, we present an analysis several natural risks faced by ships based on available datasets model simulations project changes. The results showed that: (1) sea-ice has been significantly reduced period 1979–2019, for Polar Class 6 (PC6) decreased more rapidly than general open-water (OW) ships. difference ice-breaking capacity further affects seaworthy season, with second month being August OW October PC6 addition commonly best September. (2) Low visibility common form adverse weather strong wind navigation mainly northern although pilotage appear be improving (3) According comprehensive map, distribution dominated sea ice. southern route superior terms both ice conditions, but there shallow water. (4) For which greater transport potential, projections suggest that will steadily lower any extreme light year observed historically whether class or 2050, 50–80 navigable days, could from June January following 2100. Our valuable information planning pass through Passage.